More Like A Diamond

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He believes the success of Africa Safer Gambling Week will largely be assessed on whether that channelisation improves by the next edition.

He warns governments and policymakers often misunderstand the primary causes of problem gambling, and therefore enforce measures that squeeze licensed operators and drive the illegal market.

For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.

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The contrast with land-based gambling is striking. Casinos in Morocco and Egypt operate within recognised frameworks and, in Morocco, attract international investment. Private online betting remains outside the legal market.

The scale of that unlicensed market is unclear. MDJS’ own estimate of about MAD3.5 billion a year is the only figure available. No comparable public estimate exists for Tunisia or Egypt.

Without a licensing route, these markets remain difficult to measure, tax or supervise. Blocking and criminalisation may disrupt operators, but they do not remove demand. Governments are left trying to suppress offshore betting rather than bring it within a regulated market.

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The consumer battle in prediction markets is increasingly visible. Kalshi, Polymarket and newer entrants are expanding their sports products, while DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood and a host of others are investing in exchanges, distribution and market-making capabilities.

In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.